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World Economic Outlook shows 2019 - 2020 World economy maintains moderate growth


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f:id:master_k:20190216001540j:plain

 

Recently, the unstable market has continued, so this time I have forecasted the prospects of the global economy from 2019 to 2020.

 

What I used for the forecast is data from the World Economic Outlook (WEO) that the IMF (International Monetary Fund) announces four times a year.

 

As a result, the global GDP growth rate of 2019 to 2020 is said to remain moderate growth within 3.6% ± 0.7%.

 

Of course there are concerns that the economy will deteriorate rapidly with some surprises, but ...

 

Then please go to the text.

 

table of contents

 

Outlook for the global economy

 

The IMF announces the world economic outlook four times a year.

 

Anyone can read this report.

 

The contents of the report are: (1) GDP growth rate (actual value) by country and region, (2) predicted value of GDP growth rate for that year and next fiscal year, and (3) market situation.

 

I compiled the IMF 's GDP growth rate data for 16 years.

 

 

f:id:master_k:20190216002249p:plain

* master_k edited based on IMF's global economic outlook data.
: the whole world
: Developing countries (data not including detailed data of the country, but including purchasing power parity and areas including 75% or more of the developing regions)

 

The following can be read from the GDP growth rate of the world economy () in this figure.

 

· GDP growth rate fell sharply to 3.0% in 2008 when financial crisis of 2007-2008 occurred (5.2% in 2007).

·In 2009, the big bottom of "financial crisis of 2007-2008" , it was the only negative in 16 years (-0.6%).

· After the crisis, the rate has remained at 3.1%

 

So, if it is more than 3.1% it can be presumed that world economy will be steady.

 

By the way, the world economic outlook shows the data of one year ago with measured data. And "predicted values" for that year and the following year are also listed.

 

Let's see the data again.

 

f:id:master_k:20190216002505p:plain

* master_k edited based on IMF's global economic outlook data.
: the whole world
: Developing countries (data not including detailed data of the country, but including purchasing power parity and areas including 75% or more of the developing regions)

 

Looking at this, it can be seen that the global economic growth rate of the world in 2019 and 2020 is 3.5% and 3.6%.

 

As I will explain in the next chapter, the IMF's prediction is quite accurate and I am focusing on an error within roughly 0.7%.

 

From the above ... I predict that the global GDP growth rate will be 2.8% to 4.2% in 2019 and 2020.

 

Because the GDP growth rate in 2018 is 3.7%, it is not the economic upshift, it does not drop sharply, does it feel like low-flying while losing momentum?

 

By the way, the title of the latest world economic outlook is "the world economy that loses the power of growth".

 

... Well, at least the economy seems not to be better.

 

 

Accuracy of the outlook of the world economy and data of each country

 

Well, next let's look at the accuracy of the global economic outlook.

 

The figure below shows the actual GDP growth rate and the forecasted value (the relevant year, the next fiscal year).

 

 

f:id:master_k:20190216002945p:plain

* master_k edited based on IMF's global economic outlook data.

* Forecast (Value predicted for the current fiscal year)

* Forecast (forecasted value for one year)

 

Looking at this, we can see that there is little difference between the predicted value of the world economy and the actual value.

 

It is not more than twice (2.2%, 1.4% respectively) in 2010 and 2012 at most.

 

In other years, the difference between the predicted value and the actual value is within 0.7%.

 

The high degree of accuracy is the same in the United States.

 

f:id:master_k:20190216003048p:plain

* master_k edited based on IMF's global economic outlook data.

 

Looking at the GDP growth rate in the US, we can read the trend that the growth rate has gradually declined since 2010.

 

I mentioned earlier that the economy will not collapse until 2020, but if you look at this, the global economy may collapse in 2020 and beyond so far.

 

Let's see the data of Japan this time.

 

f:id:master_k:20190216003153p:plain

* master_k edited based on IMF's global economic outlook data.

 

Unlike the world economy and America, in the case of Japan it is rather poor accuracy. The IMF seems not to be good at predicting Japan's GDP growth rate.


In addition, Japan has a GDP growth rate of 2.0% or less since 2011, which is considerably lower than the world and the US, and it is clear that it remains low for 2019 and 2020 in the future.

 

I invest mainly in Japanese stocks, but when I look at this, I think that I will shift the investment in the US and developing countries by dropping the weight of Japanese stocks in earnest.

 

Well then ... this time around this.


Finally, I will post the data used this time. If you would like to use something, please come (Please do not forget to mention the description of the exhibition as it is IMF data).

 

May the Fortune be with You!

 

Written by master_k /16/02/2019

 

 

●Data used this time

 

●Actual value

  World U.S.A Euro Japan Developing
countries
China
2005 4.4 3.1 1.5 1.9 7 10.4
2006 5 2.9 2.8 2.4 7.7 11.1
2007 5.2 2 2.6 2.4 8.3 13
2008 3 0.5 0.6 -1.2 6.1 9.6
2009 -0.6 -2.6 -4.1 -6.3 2.6 9.2
2010 5.2 3 1.9 4.4 7.3 10.4
2011 3.9 1.8 1.4 -0.6 6.3 9.3
2012 3.1 2.8 -0.7 1.4 4.9 7.7
2013 3.3 2.2 -0.5 1.6 4.7 7.8
2014 3.4 2.4 0.9 0 4.6 7.3
2015 3.2 2.6 2 1.2 4.1 6.9
2016 3.2 1.5 1.8 0.9 4.4 6.7
2017 3.8 2.2 2.4 1.9 4.7 6.9
2018 3.7 1.8 1.7 0.9 4.6 6.6
2019 3.5 2 2.5 1.1 4.5 6.2
2020 3.6 1.8 1.7 0.5 4.9 6.2

 

●Forecast for that year

  World U.S.A Euro Japan Developing
countries
China
2005            
2006            
2007            
2008 4.1 1.5 1.6 1.5 6.9 10
2009 0.5 -1.6 -2 -2.6 3.3 6.7
2010 3.9 2.7 1 1.7 6 10
2011 4.4 3 1.5 1.6 6.5 9.6
2012 3.3 1.8 -0.5 1.7 5.4 8.2
2013 3.5 2 -0.2 1.2 5.5 8.2
2014 3.7 2.8 1 1.7 5.1 7.5
2015 3.5 3.6 1.2 0.6 4.3 6.8
2016 3.4 2.6 1.7 1 4.3 6.3
2017 3.4 2.3 1.6 0.8 4.5 6.5
2018 3.9 2.7 2.2 1.2 4.9 6.6
2019 3.5 2 2.5 1.1 4.5 6.2
2020            

 

●Forecast for next fiscal year

  World U.S.A Euro Japan Developing
countries
China
2005            
2006            
2007            
2008            
2009            
2010 3 1.6 0.2 0.6 2.2 8
2011 4.3 2.4 1.6 2.2 6.3 9.7
2012 4.5 2.7 1.7 1.8 6.5 9.5
2013 3.9 2.2 0.8 1.6 5.9 8.8
2014 4.1 3 1 0.7 5.9 8.5
2015 3.9 3 1.4 1 5.4 7.3
2016 3.7 3.3 1.4 0.8 4.7 6.3
2017 3.6 2.6 1.7 0.3 4.7 6
2018 3.6 2.5 1.6 0.5 4.8 6
2019 3.9 2.5 2 0.9 5 6.4
2020 3.6 1.8 1.7 0.5 4.9 6.2

 

●See also

Warren Buffett's trade teach us How to earn money after the Global Financial Crisis!

www.shameless1.com

 

●Go to Sitemap(Sorry, Japanese only)

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